Effect of US Market Trend in 2008

Did you ever realized that the HK / China Index behave similarly as US prior to 2008; but opposite direction (behaves differently) 2008 onwards?

My guess is that we are now in the Transition period of China replacing US as the Driver of World Economy. However, this process might take quite a long time together with several rounds of adjustments by both Giant Economies.

So is that means HK / China market is now a better choice for investment rather than US?

The answer is: Yes and No. It is because the foreign funds are flowing from various places especially the Western. Any deep impact such as Major Sell-Off or Huge Correction in the US market would still affect the HK / China market, although small sell-off or minor correction might not give much impact.

No doubt there are always few market sectors that could bring you some gains during Volatility or even Bad Time......

Is Interest Rate Cut by US Federal useful?

If Interest Rate cut happened, it means the Fed admits the fact the US economy is slowing down and will proceed to Recession (or US might already in initial stage).

If Interest Rate remain unchanged, the US economy will slowly downward as all the negative news might as well keep awakening the investors, people will start disappointed then transitioning to Recession.

If Interest Rate increased, the Properties will increasingly stuck due to decreasing buyers, Sub-prime Crisis will continuously spread widely, people will get disappointed, other type of debt crisis is going to happen as well then proceed to Recession.

So what US can do to avoid it's destiny from hitting any of the above? What a wonderful but tough question that Fed is still struggling on to Fix all the issues other than just Interest-Rate Cut...

2008 An Extremely Challenging year!

If you think 2007 is a volatile year, then 2008 is a tougher and bumpy year. We are going to ride several rounds of 360 degrees of upside-down roller coaster soon.

The possible destiny for 2008 would be as any of below:
1. The final year for us to grab the fruits (last bull year of century); or
2. The year with full of uncertainties bundled with various bad news (swinging mood for investors); or
3. The year the stock market(s) start to slow down (people start panic / curious / worry); or
4. The year the stock market(s) start to crash (people start admitting the fact - too late).

Overall, 2009 would be the worst year if not 2008 or else do wish me I'm wrong...

Are you ready...?

Had you tightened up your seat-belt?

Stay tuned......

2007 YOY Performance of Economic Director

Jan: +6%
Feb: +10%
Mac: +5%
Apr: +4%
May: +1%
Jun: +5%
Jul: +11%
Aug: 0%
Sep: +12%
Oct: +8%
Nov: -1%
Dec : +4%

Total Return: 65% (Year On Year)

2006 YOY Performance of Economic Director

Jan: +4%
Feb: +3%
Mac: +7%
Apr: +8%
May: -3%
Jun: +4%
July: +3%
Aug: 0%
Sep: -2%
Oct: +5%
Nov: +6%
Dec: 0%

Total Return: 35% (Year On Year)

What are Economic Director and Investment Timer?

Challenging yourself to achieve better profit every year is a tough but fun. 2006 is the year where my investment portfolio kicked start. I use various resources and tool as well as a little of my 6th Sense (funny huh?!) to determine the direction of my investment portfolio every time.

Economic Director (ED) => as a performance index I used to represent my own investment portfolio for benchmark against others.

Investment Timer (IT) => as the indicator to determine the investment vehicle(s) that generate better return on specific region at particular time frame.

I am a medium risk-factor investor as general thus the involvement in stocks is minimal or none in order to achieve Capital Preservation and Profit Maximization across the economy cycle regardless the market condition.

This is a very tough challenge and it seems to be either too difficult or almost impossible to achieve it, at least for an investor as me. That's the reason I just started to share my view here and the information is just for reference or view exchange only.

This site might not interest you if you are not the same type of investor as me. Furthermore, I am just an ordinary Malaysian Investor and I am still learning as most investors did.

Happy Investing!