DJ might retest 10,550 level before going further to top its previous high of 11,250. Otherwise a more severe correction will follow through to retest its lower level of 9,500 range.
Again, US & EU have the most influence to the world markets than China and other emerging markets. So when US sneeze, the rest will have greater change to catch flu. Hopefully not Swine-Flu.
Short-term to watch out: 15Jun - 15Jul 2010.
Intermediate-term to watch out: Sept - Nov 2010.
Best Trades at this economic condition: Best leading stocks with Innovative Technology, Superb Management or Outstanding Product/Market. Do not forget about Natural Gas, Silver/Titanium/Gold and Reverse ETFs too.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Correction / Crash?
No doubt Q4-2009 and Q1-2010 had among the few Bumpiest Trends which I would called Correction. I guess alot of people are talking about Correction / Crash other than just Rally nowadays. The market is trying its best to pursue higher without stop taking any kind of possible catalyst to drive it.
Watch out between May - Oct 2010 for both Corrections & Crash, as the current market trend is building-up to get ready to burst it used-up all the remaining catalysts available since 2009. As usual, there would be several corrections combined together to form a great Crash.
Watch out between May - Oct 2010 for both Corrections & Crash, as the current market trend is building-up to get ready to burst it used-up all the remaining catalysts available since 2009. As usual, there would be several corrections combined together to form a great Crash.
DJIA
Near-Term Resistance level: 11,000
Top Resistance level: 12,000
Monday, November 09, 2009
Patented Trend of DJIA / SPX since 2007 Crash
If you noticed the trend since 2007 till today, there Peak (upside) & Bottom (correction/crash) used to happen during Q4 - Q1. Both DJIA & SPX already up for >55% since Mac-2009, this acts as another obvious indicator that a correction of 20%-40% could happen in cumulatively from now onwards till reach the bottom probably in Q1-2010.
Monday, November 02, 2009
October-2009 Snapshot
Date | Time (ET) | Statistic | For | Actual | Briefing Forecast | Market Expects | Prior |
Oct 27 | 09:00 AM | Case-Shiller Home Price Index | Aug | -11.32% | -13.0% | -11.90% | -13.26% |
Oct 27 | 10:00 AM | Oct | 47.7 | 52.6 | 53.5 | 53.4 | |
Oct 28 | 08:30 AM | Sep | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.0% | -2.6% | |
Oct 28 | 08:30 AM | Durable Orders ex Transportation | Sep | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.7% | -0.4% |
Oct 28 | 10:00 AM | Sep | 402K | 450K | 440K | 417K | |
Oct 28 | 10:30 AM | Crude Inventories | 10/23 | 0.78M | NA | NA | 1.31M |
Oct 29 | 08:30 AM | Chain Deflator - Advance | Q3 | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
Oct 29 | 08:30 AM | GDP - Advance | Q3 | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | -0.7% |
Oct 29 | 08:30 AM | 10/24 | 530K | 520K | 525K | 531K | |
Oct 29 | 08:30 AM | Continuing Claims | 10/17 | 5797K | 5890K | 5905K | 5945K |
Oct 30 | 08:30 AM | Sep | 0.0% | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | |
Oct 30 | 08:30 AM | Personal Spending | Sep | -0.5% | -0.7% | -0.5% | 1.4% |
Oct 30 | 08:30 AM | PCE Prices | Sep | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% |
Oct 30 | 08:30 AM | Core PCE Prices | Sep | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Oct 30 | 08:30 AM | Employment Cost Index | Q3 | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Oct 30 | 09:45 AM | Oct | 54.2 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 46.1 | |
Oct 30 | 09:55 AM | Michigan Sentiment | Oct | 70.6 | 70.3 | 70.0 | 69.4 |
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Prediction from Top Few US Market-Timers (Experts)
Gross, Roubini, Ritholtz and Smithers All Forecast a Correction
Bill Gross says assets are overvalued and the rally is over.
Nouriel Roubini - who called last year's crash - said last week that "a big crash is coming":
There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets:commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.
It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument...
There is a wall of liquidity chasing assets. That liquidity can chase those assets higher for the time being until the huge carry trade—the asset bubble and the wall of liquidity—comes crashing down. You can still have all the risky assets going higher. Of course, the higher they go, the more they diverge from fundamentals, and the riskier the situation becomes. But eventually, if the recovery of the economy is going to be anemic, sub-par, below-trend and U-shaped, there is going to be a correction. And therefore my view is to stay away from risky assets. Stay in liquid assets. I don’t know when the correction is going to occur, it could be a while longer, but eventually it will be a pretty ugly correction, across many different asset classes.
Barry Ritholtz, who has been very bullish for some time, is now looking for a correction:
I see a significant increase in the odds for a fairly substantial correction — in the 5 – 15% range — over the next 60 days.
5 factors are making me more cautious:
1) Over the past 4 days, we have had 3 failed rallies;
2) The number of New Highs on the major indices is contracting;
3) Stocks seem to be reacting far less enthusiastically to earnings beats then they had been;
4) The Transports have been acting squirrelly lately;
5) The S&P is forming an Ascending Wedge (more on this later today).
Here's the Ascending Wedge he's talking about.
And, as Bloomberg writes:
The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about 40 percent overvalued and headed for a drop as central banks pull back on securities purchases that pushed up asset prices, according to economist Andrew Smithers.
Bill Gross says assets are overvalued and the rally is over.
Nouriel Roubini - who called last year's crash - said last week that "a big crash is coming":
There’s a huge bubble, because we have zero rates in the U.S., zero rates around the world and a huge carry trade. Everyone is borrowing at zero interest rates in dollars and getting a capital gain because the dollar is weakening, so they are borrowing at negative rates. And then they invest in risky assets:commodities, equities, credit. We’re creating a bigger bubble than before.
It’s going to go crashing down, in an ugly way. That’s the basics of the argument...
There is a wall of liquidity chasing assets. That liquidity can chase those assets higher for the time being until the huge carry trade—the asset bubble and the wall of liquidity—comes crashing down. You can still have all the risky assets going higher. Of course, the higher they go, the more they diverge from fundamentals, and the riskier the situation becomes. But eventually, if the recovery of the economy is going to be anemic, sub-par, below-trend and U-shaped, there is going to be a correction. And therefore my view is to stay away from risky assets. Stay in liquid assets. I don’t know when the correction is going to occur, it could be a while longer, but eventually it will be a pretty ugly correction, across many different asset classes.
Barry Ritholtz, who has been very bullish for some time, is now looking for a correction:
I see a significant increase in the odds for a fairly substantial correction — in the 5 – 15% range — over the next 60 days.
5 factors are making me more cautious:
1) Over the past 4 days, we have had 3 failed rallies;
2) The number of New Highs on the major indices is contracting;
3) Stocks seem to be reacting far less enthusiastically to earnings beats then they had been;
4) The Transports have been acting squirrelly lately;
5) The S&P is forming an Ascending Wedge (more on this later today).
Here's the Ascending Wedge he's talking about.
And, as Bloomberg writes:
The U.S. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is about 40 percent overvalued and headed for a drop as central banks pull back on securities purchases that pushed up asset prices, according to economist Andrew Smithers.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
Road Toward the Future of US
Just to share this from someone well-known with credibility in USA.
1. Inflation will escalate over a period of 2 years.
2. Gold and Silver is all you can rely and it is the Elites currency
3. By 2012, the dollar will be dead.
4. Stock Market will go up, up, and up to ridiculous levels then crash.
5. Within 2 years everyone will be working for the government.
6. They want to narrow banks down to 9 major banks.
7. Opec is going to use a basket of currencies.
8. They altered timeline by the American people giving 2.5 trillion.
9. In 2 years, you will be so broke you cannot rebel against the government.
10. When you see more people in government, then time of collapse is near.
11. As the dollar decreases gold and stock market will go up.
12. When you see the dollar drop very rapidly the 2 year timeline is over.
13. Reserve currency status is being lost in the dollar and you will see the dollar lose it faster.
War
1. War is planned in 2 years involving Israel and Iran, then spread to entire world.
Church and the Devil’s Messiah
1. The elite have to remove America’s God to conquer the republic.
2. Elite are not talking about the antichrist when talking about the devil’s messiah.
3. Elite are talking about a system and a spirit of deception – Devil’s Messiah
4. Elite have cause to be people to think they are evolutionized animals.
5. People thinking they are animals causes human beings to act like animals (Evolution).
6. Elite caused churches to be federalized by deceiving pastors with the 501 C3 form (1967).
7. Fill out forms in church to find out personal information about people in church.
8. They fill out forms for Homeland Security.
Buzz Words are used in media from Elite for the Agenda
1. The war brought the country out of the depression.
2. Iran’s external enemy is Israel
3. Separation of Church and State.
Obama and Mccain
1. They wanted Mccain in office or at least this division of Elite wanted Mccain.
2. No matter which person won the election, they controlled both parties.
3. Obama is pushing their agenda, but they are not happy with him lately.
4. Obama is totally out of control by touching sore spots of Elite.
1. Inflation will escalate over a period of 2 years.
2. Gold and Silver is all you can rely and it is the Elites currency
3. By 2012, the dollar will be dead.
4. Stock Market will go up, up, and up to ridiculous levels then crash.
5. Within 2 years everyone will be working for the government.
6. They want to narrow banks down to 9 major banks.
7. Opec is going to use a basket of currencies.
8. They altered timeline by the American people giving 2.5 trillion.
9. In 2 years, you will be so broke you cannot rebel against the government.
10. When you see more people in government, then time of collapse is near.
11. As the dollar decreases gold and stock market will go up.
12. When you see the dollar drop very rapidly the 2 year timeline is over.
13. Reserve currency status is being lost in the dollar and you will see the dollar lose it faster.
War
1. War is planned in 2 years involving Israel and Iran, then spread to entire world.
Church and the Devil’s Messiah
1. The elite have to remove America’s God to conquer the republic.
2. Elite are not talking about the antichrist when talking about the devil’s messiah.
3. Elite are talking about a system and a spirit of deception – Devil’s Messiah
4. Elite have cause to be people to think they are evolutionized animals.
5. People thinking they are animals causes human beings to act like animals (Evolution).
6. Elite caused churches to be federalized by deceiving pastors with the 501 C3 form (1967).
7. Fill out forms in church to find out personal information about people in church.
8. They fill out forms for Homeland Security.
Buzz Words are used in media from Elite for the Agenda
1. The war brought the country out of the depression.
2. Iran’s external enemy is Israel
3. Separation of Church and State.
Obama and Mccain
1. They wanted Mccain in office or at least this division of Elite wanted Mccain.
2. No matter which person won the election, they controlled both parties.
3. Obama is pushing their agenda, but they are not happy with him lately.
4. Obama is totally out of control by touching sore spots of Elite.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Nature of Economic Behavior
There are several "Driving Forces" that influence/impact the market. Below is the natural and rightful trend...
Human -> Economic Indicators -> News -> Market Performance
This look alright but rethink again, the factors under Human Force would be Emotion that leads to various decisions/actions before causing the reading of Economic Indicators then Positive News before affecting the Market Performance.
But anything that is unjustifiable under any of the categories above will cause a mess/false-alarm. This is what we (at least myself and some others) are seeing now...
All the numbers published out there are either partially inaccurate or inappropriately calculated, such as the slight decreasing Monthly Unemployment Rate will not mean the Total Unemployment Rate is low (remember we are near the level of historical crashes).
Also anyone dare to say we found the Real Bottom of the crisis (Toxic Debt & Home Foreclosure) by providing the factual justification? Is the few trillions dollars are going to save the entire economy or else how much could it save then? Much more questions you may want to ask yourself from different perspectives but not from what you read from the mainstream news...
If the "Root Cause" is not finalised and found then fix it entirely, how the economy is going to recover fundamentally? What I am seeing now is that majority is influenced by the positive news (partially true / misleading) created by "Special Groups" of people and occasionally the main streamers will publish the articles based on the resulted market performance with their own perception / assumption.
I hope I could be wrong but one more powerful factor we should highly consider is the Reverse Psychology that always the Contrarian / Minority of people will benefit more than the majority of normal people in any market at any timing.
Projection: Another round of crash / serious correction should be in-place to wipe out all the speculated gains so far in order to ensure the economy is recovered fundamentally in steadiest pace. Let's watch out for the market performance in 5-6 months period till end of Q1-2010.
Wish all good luck and happy investing!
Human -> Economic Indicators -> News -> Market Performance
This look alright but rethink again, the factors under Human Force would be Emotion that leads to various decisions/actions before causing the reading of Economic Indicators then Positive News before affecting the Market Performance.
But anything that is unjustifiable under any of the categories above will cause a mess/false-alarm. This is what we (at least myself and some others) are seeing now...
All the numbers published out there are either partially inaccurate or inappropriately calculated, such as the slight decreasing Monthly Unemployment Rate will not mean the Total Unemployment Rate is low (remember we are near the level of historical crashes).
Also anyone dare to say we found the Real Bottom of the crisis (Toxic Debt & Home Foreclosure) by providing the factual justification? Is the few trillions dollars are going to save the entire economy or else how much could it save then? Much more questions you may want to ask yourself from different perspectives but not from what you read from the mainstream news...
If the "Root Cause" is not finalised and found then fix it entirely, how the economy is going to recover fundamentally? What I am seeing now is that majority is influenced by the positive news (partially true / misleading) created by "Special Groups" of people and occasionally the main streamers will publish the articles based on the resulted market performance with their own perception / assumption.
I hope I could be wrong but one more powerful factor we should highly consider is the Reverse Psychology that always the Contrarian / Minority of people will benefit more than the majority of normal people in any market at any timing.
Projection: Another round of crash / serious correction should be in-place to wipe out all the speculated gains so far in order to ensure the economy is recovered fundamentally in steadiest pace. Let's watch out for the market performance in 5-6 months period till end of Q1-2010.
Wish all good luck and happy investing!
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Possible correction is coming to us!
As I mentioned in Q1-2009, there would be another round of correction in World Indexes due to unhealthy upside for the past 6-months. But this time the downside will be far better off than Q4-2008. So you may want to treat this as "Opportunity Time" since the long-term trend would still be upside.
What would we see in Q2-Q3 2009?
1. Oil < USD60
2. DJ < 7,500
3. HSI < 16,500
4. Gold < USD850
5. SGX < 2,000
Above are my rough-estimations only, of course the actual figures will vary. Hopefully my forecast is as accurate as possible in order to ensure my judgment in Investment is correct.
What would we see in Q2-Q3 2009?
1. Oil < USD60
2. DJ < 7,500
3. HSI < 16,500
4. Gold < USD850
5. SGX < 2,000
Above are my rough-estimations only, of course the actual figures will vary. Hopefully my forecast is as accurate as possible in order to ensure my judgment in Investment is correct.
Monday, March 09, 2009
Guess WHOs?
Looks like most of my guesses are realized, except HongKong & China indexes. Reason is very simple, there are more stable than US with limited impact due to total government support & effort.
Now, the question is WHO is the first one to hit the bottom and also to recover?
Answer: The Western & Eastern respectively. If DJIA (US) manages to hit 5,000 <-> 6000 bottom level, somehow major indexes around the world will surely follow accordingly including HSI (HK) & ShangHai (China) as well as the rest.
Then the other question is WHEN is the bottom and recovering period?
Answer: Around Q2-Q3, and Q3-Q4 respectively.
What is the best investment vehicle for 2009?
Answer: Of course not Saving Account / Fixed Deposit due to the extreme low level of return, but Stock is one of the recommended one although there are few more good options to go. But be careful on the selection process because this could be the Win or Die decision to make...
P/S: Will find free time to update again due to my extremely busy schedule.
Now, the question is WHO is the first one to hit the bottom and also to recover?
Answer: The Western & Eastern respectively. If DJIA (US) manages to hit 5,000 <-> 6000 bottom level, somehow major indexes around the world will surely follow accordingly including HSI (HK) & ShangHai (China) as well as the rest.
Then the other question is WHEN is the bottom and recovering period?
Answer: Around Q2-Q3, and Q3-Q4 respectively.
What is the best investment vehicle for 2009?
Answer: Of course not Saving Account / Fixed Deposit due to the extreme low level of return, but Stock is one of the recommended one although there are few more good options to go. But be careful on the selection process because this could be the Win or Die decision to make...
P/S: Will find free time to update again due to my extremely busy schedule.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Another RIGHTFUL Guess?
Looks like our prophecy is correct again.
How about this time?
These are the estimated short-term bottom levels. Will the followings become realities?
HSI = <10,000
DJIA = <7500
China = <1300
STI = <1300
KLCI = <700
OIL = <60
Regardless the answer is YES / NO, we are currently nearing the bottom, but not at the bottom yet (i suppose).
How about this time?
These are the estimated short-term bottom levels. Will the followings become realities?
HSI = <10,000
DJIA = <7500
China = <1300
STI = <1300
KLCI = <700
OIL = <60
Regardless the answer is YES / NO, we are currently nearing the bottom, but not at the bottom yet (i suppose).
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